✓ Beat expectations (seeded 25th)
+0.034Change
Published Rating2.526current view: 2.542
Uncertainty (σ)0.275
Conservative (μ−3σ)1.700
Events Played30
FlickSkill™ Over Timehow the system's estimate of your skill has evolved
3
Partial trace coverage. Only your most recent 7 events have a Published-rating snapshot — earlier events happened before you entered the NCA top-100 coverage window, so the green line picks up from the first tracked event onward.
The yellow line is the system's current best estimate of your skill at each point in your history — a smooth arc that reflects everything FlickSkill now knows, with the benefit of hindsight. The green line is your published rating — what the leaderboard showed right after each event, with no future data yet. The gap between green and yellow at any event is how much FlickSkill has re-learned about your skill since. The blue dotted lines are past traces — each one shows what FlickSkill thought of your whole rating history right after a previous tournament. Newer traces are darker; older traces fade. The slider controls how many to show.
Tournament Results
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 24th)
+0.067Change
Below seeding (was 15th)
-0.074Change
Held seed (2nd)
+0.038Change
Below seeding (was 29th)
-0.135Change
Below seeding (was 6th)
-0.013Change
✓ Beat expectations (seeded 9th)
+2.608Change
Pre-tracking
Pre-tracking
Pre-tracking
Pre-tracking
Pre-tracking
Pre-tracking
Pre-tracking
Pre-tracking
Pre-tracking
Pre-tracking
Pre-tracking
Pre-tracking
Pre-tracking
Pre-tracking
Pre-tracking
Pre-tracking
Pre-tracking
Pre-tracking
How the chart is built
The yellow Skill Arc is FlickSkill's current best estimate of your true skill at every point in your history — a smooth curve fit across all data, including events that happened after each point. It's the most accurate retrospective view, but it keeps moving every time the system learns from a new tournament.
The green Published Rating is what the leaderboard showed at the time. Each green dot is the endpoint of TTT's view right after that tournament was processed, with no future data yet — that's the rating you would have actually seen on the public page. The green line never moves once an event is locked.
The gap between green and yellow at any event is how much FlickSkill has re-learned about your skill since — wider gaps mean later results pulled the system's view of that event up or down. Hover a point to see both values plus the felt change since the previous event.
The blue dotted lines are past traces — each shows the full Skill Arc as FlickSkill saw it after a previous tournament. The slider controls how many overlap. Together they show how the system's view of your whole history evolves over time.